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This Week's MMA notes PLUS Miguel Torres Interview
 Posted
8/7/2009 12:24:00 PM
The sport of MMA just saw another crazy week, thanks to Fedor Emelianenko and his management team at M-1 Global. Shortly after Affliction’s Trilogy show was cancelled, Dana White and Lorenzo Fertitta flew out to Orange County, CA, to negotiate with Fedor’s camp, hoping to FINALLY bring “The Last Emperor” into the UFC. As always, the issue of co-promotion was the major sticking point that neither side could agree on. Dana and the UFC made several concessions. They would allow Fedor to fight in Sambo tournaments in his native Russia while under UFC contract, and they would allow him to advertise M-1 Global on his fight shorts and in his corner. They would not, however, allow M-1 Global to co-promote every UFC show that Fedor fought on. Dana White argues that it makes no sense to essentially make M-1, a fledgling promotion, become a full partner with the UFC and ride their coat tails just because they have one fighter who “may or may not be the best heavyweight in the world.” Imagine Brett Favre telling the Minnesota Vikings he will only sign with them if they make him part owner of the team. That’s the comparison Dana draws to Fedor and M-1’s demands, and it’s not so far off. (note that Fedor is a part owner of M-1, as is his Manager Vadim Finkelchtein)
Consider the past 3 promotions that have housed Emelianenko, and have all given into the demands of his M-1 Management Team: Pride FC, Bodog, and Affliction. What’s the common denominator here? All 3 of those promotions ran out of money and went out of business. Fedor, in my opinion, is indeed the best heavyweight of all time, but he’s never been a huge draw on U.S. soil. M-1 approaches these co-promotion deals as if Fedor sells pay per views like Brock Lesnar, when that simply isn’t the case. A Pride FC show featuring a Fedor vs Mark Hunt main event sold only 33,000 pay per view buys in the U.S. To put it simply, the UFC is big enough without Fedor. They don’t need to risk losing money on a one sided co-promotion deal just to bring him in. Dana White made at least 2 concessions in the Fedor negotiations, while Fedor’s side made none.
Strikeforce, on the other hand, jumped at the chance to sign Fedor, and got the deal done on Monday with no concern for M-1 Global’s lofty demands. Fedor signs a 3 fight deal with the San Jose based promotion, and will likely have his first Strikeforce fight this fall on Showtime. The Big problem with Strikeforce is their weak heavyweight stable. Had Fedor gone to the UFC, he could’ve fought the top players in the division like Brock Lesnar, Randy Couture, Frank Mir, Minotauro Nogueira (whom he fought 3 times in Pride FC), Shane Carwin, and Cain Velasquez. All six of those names are likely tougher opponents than anyone currently under contract with Strikeforce. Strikeforce only has 3 real options to fight Fedor right now: Current Heavyweight Champ Alistair Overeem, undefeated knockout artist Brett “The Grim” Rogers, and Former Pride and UFC contender Fabricio Werdum. Fedor will likely fight Rogers first.
Meanwhile, the UFC is set to put on another blockbuster pay per view card on Saturday with UFC 101: "Declaration" from Philadelphia. Headlining the card will be a lightweight title showdown between the champion BJ Penn, and the most worthy contender Kenny Florian. After a tough, soul-crushing loss to Georges St-Pierre on Super Bowl weekend, I’m interested to see if Penn shows up with a full tank of gas. He’s shown sub par cardio in the past, and some question whether his heart is still in the Octagon (he was rumored to be contemplating retirement after the GSP fight). Florian, on the other hand, is a cardio machine and one of the hardest working fighters in the UFC. He’s shown improvement in every single UFC fight, and has the type of well rounded skillset that could push Penn into the late rounds. Overall, though, I still think this is Penn’s fight to lose, despite the fact that numerous experts and fighters are picking Florian for the upset (including WEC 135 lb Champ Miguel Torres, audio interview attached on this blog). Florian typically picks opponents apart first on the feet, and then takes them down to the mat to wear them down further with his stellar Jiu Jitsu. Such a strategy will be tough against BJ Penn for two major reasons: 1) Penn’s boxing has looked world class in recent fights, plus he has a reach advantage over Florian, and 2) Florian’s chances of wearing BJ down with his Jiu Jitsu can only happen if he takes BJ to the ground, which has shown to be an impossible task for any fighter not named Georges St-Pierre. Despite Florian’s great conditioning and disciplined gameplans, I still feel that BJ’s skill set will be too much for him. Expect a patented BJ Penn rear naked choke to finish Florian in Round 3 after an entertaining fight.
The other big fight to watch for on UFC 101 is Anderson Silva moving up in weight to take on Forrest Griffin at 205 lbs. This is a great move by the UFC, as they look to wash their hands of Silva’s 2 previous fights- a pair of snoozers against Patrick Cote and Thales Leites. Forrest Griffin’s aggressive style should make for an entertaining fight with the counter-punching Silva. Despite the fact that Silva will give up significant size to the larger Griffin, it woudn’t be a smart move to pick against Silva here. Silva is the best Muay Thai practitioner in MMA, and has never been given any problems on his feet in his 9 UFC wins. His kickboxing skills are out of this world, and Griffin has shown to have a suspect chin in the past (just ask Keith Jardine). Griffin’s best chance in this fight is to use his extra weight to his advantage by wearing out Silva in the clinch and on the ground. If Griffin can take a page out of Brock Lesnar’s playbook and find a way to hold Silva on the ground, he could have great success in the fight. However, I expect Silva to find a TKO victory in round 2. His strikes are just too lethal.
Let’s not forget that UFC 101 isn’t the only MMA show this weekend. Consensus top 5 pound for pound fighter Miguel Torres will defend his WEC Bantamweight Title on Sunday Night against undefeated Contender Brian Bowles. I had a chance to interview Torres earlier this week, so I will let you guys hear that for yourselves. Torres previews his matchup with Bowles, gives me his opinions on Fedor Emelianko, and even gives his predictions for UFC 101. The interview is attached to this blog. Enjoy!
UFC 101 airs live on Saturday Night, August 8th at 10pm on Pay Per View
WEC: Torres vs Bowles airs live for FREE on Versus- Sunday August 9th at 9pm.
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Alex Donno
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so much for miguel torres. All I can say is wow....and Anderson Silva i think cemented the fact that he is the pound for pound best fighter in the world....no question about it.
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Posted By
Evan
On
8/10/2009 12:35:42 PM
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It was an odd fight, but Griffin has been known to have a suspect chin. If Griffin really took a dive, I wouldn't expect him to do it so early in the fight.
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Posted By
Alex Donno
On
8/9/2009 3:02:57 PM
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That silva fight was such a fix- griffin flopped 2 times to a weakly thrown jab that silva threw off of his back foot- griffin is known to be a toughguy in the sport- bloody fights and never gives up- he flopped like fish and I'll never watch him fight again
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Posted By
Jesse B
On
8/9/2009 2:16:02 PM
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